Market Outlook – Start of the BEAR

WE were asked this question over the weekend. Any time the market declines fear rises in investors’ minds. No one wants to have large equity portfolios if the market is heading to a serious bear market. In the attached report we went through some of our main indicators and factors that explain equity markets. None of the factors are calling for a bear market. That does not mean that we cannot have a correction type of shorter term decline. Rather the economic environment does not call for a bear market. This is similar to the reports that we regularly produce although the text is more casual than normal. On the cover we show clips of past forecasts by advisors expecting the start of the bear market in 2017 and again this January. The January bear call much have been particularly painful as the US market advanced very rapidly immediately after this forecast. Flip through the factor charts and see that the big bear is not yet upon us.

World Market Fair Value Report – USA – 2019 August

On an industry group level of segmentation, Automobiles & Components and Banks are more than 10 points to the undervaluation side at 86.1% Fv and 81.9% Fv, respectively. Media & Entertainment holds the highest valuation at 111.0%.

World Markets Fair Value Report – UK – 2019 August

The British market continues to advance in overall valuation and remains well within fair value range (80.0% to 130.0%) at 106.3%. LargeCap stocks are similar at 106.2% with both MidCap and SmallCap closely centered around the mid 105.0 mark. There is a close grouping between the three segments indicating some uniformity across the total market. The full report with 350 British stocks can be found under Client Services: Europe

World Markets Stock Consideration Report – USA – 2019 August

The Total market is reflecting a good fair value at 94.8% with both Large Cap and Mid Cap segments at fair value, 100.5% and 100.8% respectively. Small Cap continues to stay in the undervalued side of fair value range at 88.2%. Full report in World Markets section.

World Markets Fair Value Report – Canada – 2019 July

The Canadian market has moved 1.50 points closer to fair value over the past month but remains slightly over valued at 104.40%. This is well within what is considered a fair value trading range (80.0% to 130.0% Fv). The market remains highly centered within the fair value range on both an average and median measure. See the full report with individual stock and sector details under: Clients Services > World Markets

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