Category: Uncategorized

J

Jerome Powell in Zurich – Coffee House

Coffee houses in both the UK and USA historically are
meeting places, obviously for coffee, but also to
discuss the issues of the day normally with a business
emphasis. This tradition is still active today. The ISN
Coffee House occasional musings are in a similar vein
discussing issues of the day.

This past week FED Chairman Jerome Powell, spoke at
the Zurich University. I ( Bruce Albrecht ) attended
with many others. One does not go to these events
expecting to learn some new revelation although it is
good to have some things confirmed and one never
knows what questions might be asked from the
audience.

Market Outlook – Start of the BEAR

WE were asked this question over the weekend. Any time the market declines fear rises in investors’ minds. No one wants to have large equity portfolios if the market is heading to a serious bear market. In the attached report we went through some of our main indicators and factors that explain equity markets. None of the factors are calling for a bear market. That does not mean that we cannot have a correction type of shorter term decline. Rather the economic environment does not call for a bear market. This is similar to the reports that we regularly produce although the text is more casual than normal. On the cover we show clips of past forecasts by advisors expecting the start of the bear market in 2017 and again this January. The January bear call much have been particularly painful as the US market advanced very rapidly immediately after this forecast. Flip through the factor charts and see that the big bear is not yet upon us.

France Fair Value Report – February 2019

This is a NEW report from ISN that covers the French market. Fair values are calculated along with targets for Overvaluation and Undervaluation and the traditional percent current prices represent of fair value. This report will soon appear under the World Markets menu.

Investment Strategy Today

Adobe earns an increase in fair value due to higher rankings in revenue and earnings. Altria Grp earns a Buy consideration while HCI Grp earns a Sell consideration. Hold consideration continues to grow as previously rated Sell/Sell Watch consideration stocks drop back into fair value range. The market is back to market neutral valuation at 103.5% Fv for the total market, 101.1% for LargeCaps.

When Does Consumer Confidence Outstrip the Market’s Ability to Deliver Return?

Does consumer confidence pull the stock market to higher levels or does the market make consumers more confident?
Probably a bit of both, but at what point do consumers/investors become over-exuberant.