Category: Uncategorized

World Markets – USA – Fair Value Report

Earnings continue to dominate influence at 41.4% nearly 1/3 more influence than either revenues or dividends. For LargeCap stocks the influence of earnings is double that of revenue, but dividends nearly match earnings at 44.5%. In SmallCap the relationship changes to where earnings and revenues are nearly matched, but dividends places well behind in influence at 18.7%.

Market Outlook – Start of the BEAR

WE were asked this question over the weekend. Any time the market declines fear rises in investors’ minds. No one wants to have large equity portfolios if the market is heading to a serious bear market. In the attached report we went through some of our main indicators and factors that explain equity markets. None of the factors are calling for a bear market. That does not mean that we cannot have a correction type of shorter term decline. Rather the economic environment does not call for a bear market. This is similar to the reports that we regularly produce although the text is more casual than normal. On the cover we show clips of past forecasts by advisors expecting the start of the bear market in 2017 and again this January. The January bear call much have been particularly painful as the US market advanced very rapidly immediately after this forecast. Flip through the factor charts and see that the big bear is not yet upon us.

France Fair Value Report – February 2019

This is a NEW report from ISN that covers the French market. Fair values are calculated along with targets for Overvaluation and Undervaluation and the traditional percent current prices represent of fair value. This report will soon appear under the World Markets menu.

Investment Strategy Today

Adobe earns an increase in fair value due to higher rankings in revenue and earnings. Altria Grp earns a Buy consideration while HCI Grp earns a Sell consideration. Hold consideration continues to grow as previously rated Sell/Sell Watch consideration stocks drop back into fair value range. The market is back to market neutral valuation at 103.5% Fv for the total market, 101.1% for LargeCaps.