Category: Economics
Update Economic USA Inflation
After a brief period of inflation supporting rate increases by the Federal Reserve the consumer price index has moved back under a 2.0% target to 1.7%. At this rate, inflation is not supporting an additional rate increase in the bank rate. The producer price index also dropped to 1.9% annual rate. In general, increases in the PPI are reflected in the CPI several months afterwards. Neither inflation index is indicating an increase in overall prices in the near term. Both are at levels that are well within our current forecast.
Update Economic USA Housing
Update Housing
Update Economic USA Consumer Credit
Update Consumer Credit
Update Economic USA Personal Income
Personal income increased a very light $3.5 billion in June which was only 5% of the previous month gain of $67.1 billion. The rate of increase in personal income has been in decline since November 2014. It is still expanding in absolute terms, but at a lower rate of expansion. We know, the longer an expansion takes place, the more difficult a higher rate becomes. Personal income must continue to increase for an expanding economy.
Update Economic USA Employment
Employment jobless claims for 1st time requests is continue to fall. Recent jobless claims were down another 15,000 for the week. The rate is now at 233,000 which is well below the 300,000 unofficial benchmark. This is also a record low since 1973. Additionally, the 4-week average remained nearly flat at 243,750 just 750 higher than the previous week. Continuing claims remained below $2 million for 9 straight weeks now at 1.977 million.