Category: Economics
Update USA Unemployment Rate
American unemployment rate for September came in in line within our forecast at 4.2%, but at the lower end of the most likely range. We are certainly not complaining as employment continues to improve. Total unemployed dropped by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Long-term unemployed remained unchanged at 1.7 million and the labor participation rate remained unchanged at 63.1%. The only negative news in employment was a drop in total non-farm employment by 33,000 but this was most likely the result of hurricanes impacting the food service industries.
Update Economic USA Housing
There is no doubt, the rate of increase in housing starts has slowed. You can see this in the first chart. Growth that started since 2010 appears to have taken a rest over the last several months and is struggling from lower supply numbers and higher prices. Prices increased by more than 5% from this time last year. Home sales remain above the previous year but have slowed by over 3% this month alone. Supply has increased most recently which potentially could ease pricing pressure.
Update Economic USA Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has started to move sideways at a 120 level. The current measurement placed the indicator at 119.8 down slightly from 120.4. After a steady increase for many months’ confidence has plateaued. It would be nearly impossible for confidence to increase into infinity as it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain improvements. The fact current consumer confidence has not deteriorated is reassuring. Future expectations has also flattened at a low 100 level. The current measurement places the indicator at 102.2 a slight increase over a previous 101.7.
Update Economic USA Consumer Credit
Consumer credit continues to expand at an above historical rate after taking a quick recess while the consumer manages debt in a responsible manner. Default rates in bank card related debt improved while auto loans worsened and mortgage defaults remained stable.
Update Economic USA Housing
Even though housing starts dropped 0.8% this month on a month-to-month basis the number of units increased from 1,155,000 to 1,180,000 at an annual rate. This represents a 2.7% increase on a year-over-year basis.