Category: Employment

Employment continues to do well in the U.S. with the addition of 235,000 in nonfarm payrolls. This is better than the previous month in all categories except Midsized businesses. Increases in the small business category is especially important because this is the category where most new jobs are created. Most jobs in larger enterprises are replacement positions, but even in this category the additions were 62,000 greater than previous. Inflation in wages may start to appear in greater earnest in the next 6 months, but for now it is subdued at 2.4% annually. The unemployment rate remains extremely low at 4.1% with 5.27 million new hirings.

American unemployment rate for September came in in line within our forecast at 4.2%, but at the lower end of the most likely range. We are certainly not complaining as employment continues to improve. Total unemployed dropped by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Long-term unemployed remained unchanged at 1.7 million and the labor participation rate remained unchanged at 63.1%. The only negative news in employment was a drop in total non-farm employment by 33,000 but this was most likely the result of hurricanes impacting the food service industries.

Employment continues to do well in the U.S. with the addition of 178,000 in nonfarm payrolls. This is better than the previous month especially in the area of small business. Increases in the small business category is especially important because this is the category where most new jobs are created. Most jobs in larger enterprises are replacement positions. As we have mentioned in previous reports, we believe it will become increasingly more difficult to increase overall employment numbers as the unemployment rate drops. Inflation in wages may start to appear in greater earnest in the next 6 months.

Employment jobless claims for 1st time requests is continue to fall. Recent jobless claims were down another 15,000 for the week. The rate is now at 233,000 which is well below the 300,000 unofficial benchmark. This is also a record low since 1973. Additionally, the 4-week average remained nearly flat at 243,750 just 750 higher than the previous week. Continuing claims remained below $2 million for 9 straight weeks now at 1.977 million.

Job creation is an important factor in determining growth in the economy and current employment gains and unemployment rates are well within our forecast. The most recent ADP report shows a nice gain of 158,000. This number reflects the companies serviced by ADP. A broader measure is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and that number is also favorable showing a gain of 222,000. Levels above a 200,000 gain on the BLS number are considered expansionary.