Category: Economics

World Economic Summary – 2019 May 6

Inflation remains in low stable territory nearly everywhere in the world while moderate economic growth prevails. Europe continues to struggle while the rest of the world enjoys average growth levels with excellent employment statistics.

World Economic Summary

Australian building environment and retail sales improved while Canadian employment remained in good favor. French trade improved with German industrial production and Russian GDP. Most of the world continues to enjoy low inflation.

World Economic Summary – 2019 April 1

In North America Canada continued to slow while American housing moved ahead slightly. Consumer expectations softened but employment remained solid. Europe experienced high expectations in Germany and France but disappointments in Spain. Japan watch retail sales improve and Singapore industrial production moved to the positive side. Unfortunately, South Korea watch theirs slow.

World Economic Summary

Overall, most indicators passed along a recognition that the slowing taking place on a global scale was not moving into a contraction. Many pricing indicators experienced slight increases. Most production and sales orientated indicators were mixed with some increasing and others of equal importance softening thereby not giving a clear indication in direction.

World Economic Summary

Global economic data is mixed but with a gentle slowing of growth. It is a slower rate of growth, not the end of expansion. Inflation is tame throughout the developed world which frustrates central bankers with interest rates at historically low rates. Maybe we are establishing new “historical” rates. Sometimes history becomes the current environment.

Economic: USA Trade Balance & USD Influence

The trade balance has been negative since 1992 so this is not a recent occurrence. Not all stocks are impacted by changes in trade economics the same way. It is not a universally good vs. bad influencer. For more information on how individual stocks are impacted please see the directory that follows this report or visit the website www.Investment-Strategy.net under Economics.

Economic: USA Corporate Profitability

The turn in corporate profitability is not negative, just slower. Given the slower corporate growth rate and earlier equity overvaluation, it is not surprising that the market adjusted to a more realistic expectation of the future.

Economics – Median Household Income, Useful?

Just when we thought that political controversy would not enter statistics, we are proven wrong. The rhetoric surrounding median household income this week should receive an award for how to report a simple number, in the most complex manner. The amount of information provided has been overwhelming, but in each case very selective and possibly, misleading.

Consumer Credit – Update September

Historically, consumer credit started 1987 at $653 billion. It is now at a $3,918 billion level. The quality of the credit is much better than historically and has remained stable at a combined default rate of 0.87%.

ISM Diffusion Index – Is it a valuable indicator?

The ISM Diffusion Index may be an excellent determinant of current and / or future economic activity, but it is not a significant indicator when it comes to stock share price movements.