Overall, most indicators passed along a recognition that the slowing taking place on a global scale was not moving into a contraction. Many pricing indicators experienced slight increases. Most production and sales orientated indicators were mixed with some increasing and others of equal importance softening thereby not giving a clear indication in direction.
Global economic data is mixed but with a gentle slowing of growth. It is a slower rate of growth, not the end of expansion. Inflation is tame throughout the developed world which frustrates central bankers with interest rates at historically low rates. Maybe we are establishing new “historical” rates. Sometimes history becomes the current environment.
The trade balance has been negative since 1992 so this is not a recent occurrence. Not all stocks are impacted by changes in trade economics the same way. It is not a universally good vs. bad influencer. For more information on how individual stocks are impacted please see the directory that follows this report or visit the website www.Investment-Strategy.net under Economics.
The turn in corporate profitability is not negative, just slower. Given the slower corporate growth rate and earlier equity overvaluation, it is not surprising that the market adjusted to a more realistic expectation of the future.
Just when we thought that political controversy would not enter statistics, we are proven wrong. The rhetoric surrounding median household income this week should receive an award for how to report a simple number, in the most complex manner. The amount of information provided has been overwhelming, but in each case very selective and possibly, misleading.
Historically, consumer credit started 1987 at $653 billion. It is now at a $3,918 billion level. The quality of the credit is much better than historically and has remained stable at a combined default rate of 0.87%.
Inflation has been subdued for over a decade globally providing a welcome relief to consumers and frustrating central bankers. It appears that recent increases in inflation in the U.S. are about to frustrate global central bankers but, for an entirely different reason.
Currently, the index is portraying a consumer that has debt under control and manageable. Bank credit cards and first mortgage rates improved while auto loan default rate remained unchanged. The composite index is at 0.86 in June which is 0.03 points lower than last month, but 0.04 points higher than this time last year. Mortgage defaults are also slightly higher, year-over-year at 0.63. Auto loans have increased by 0.11 points from last year.