Category: Economics

Inflation has been subdued for over a decade globally providing a welcome relief to consumers and frustrating central bankers. It appears that recent increases in inflation in the U.S. are about to frustrate global central bankers but, for an entirely different reason.

This is an update of our Economic Forecast on Consumer Credit. Our focus in this report is on consumer credit expectations through December 2019.

Currently, the index is portraying a consumer that has debt under control and manageable, but slightly moving sideways to upward. The largest increase is in bank card debt. The composite index is at 0.89 in May which is 0.03 points lower than last month, but 0.03 points higher than this time last year. Mortgage defaults are also lower, year-over-year at 0.66. Auto loans have increased by 0.08 points from last year and 0.17 points from 2 years ago, but also dropped from last month by 0.06 points to 0.93.

Currently, the index is portraying a consumer that has debt under control and manageable. The composite index is at 0.92 in April which is 0.02 points higher than last year at this time, but 0.04 points lower than just a month earlier in March.  Mortgage defaults are lower, year-over-year at 0.68. Auto loans have increased by 0.09 points from last year, but also dropped from last month by 0.06 points to 0.99.