Category: Economics
Update Economic USA GDP
GDP or Gross Domestic Product moved well into the most-likely-range of our forecast at 3.0%. As a comparison, we were at 1.4% GDP at the end of last quarter and 2.1 at the end of 2017. The current average rate is just slightly higher at 2.2%
Update Economic USA Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence gained 2.3 percentage points to 122.9 in the recovery attempt since a drop several months ago. What is clear in the longer term is an overall continuation in the general outlook. Both consumers and business remains generally confident. Consumers added 5.8 points to their index while business added 1.0 point to the business outlook index. Confidence is higher than it was last year.
Update Economic USA Employment
Employment continues to do well in the U.S. with the addition of 178,000 in nonfarm payrolls. This is better than the previous month especially in the area of small business. Increases in the small business category is especially important because this is the category where most new jobs are created. Most jobs in larger enterprises are replacement positions. As we have mentioned in previous reports, we believe it will become increasingly more difficult to increase overall employment numbers as the unemployment rate drops. Inflation in wages may start to appear in greater earnest in the next 6 months.
Update Economic USA Housing
New home sales statistics were recently released and they continue to show a developing market where prices are increasing which correspondingly slowed demand. There is a lower level of supply available across the entire housing marketplace. New home sales dropped 9.4% for the month, but year-over-year activity is up 9.2%. The sales period, the time new homes stay on the market For Sale, is down to 2.9 months from a previous 3.6 months just a year ago; all signs of a tightening market; good for suppliers and, not as good for buyers. Fortunately, the market is not showing signs of stress, but rather a normal activity when supply and demand are tilted to higher demand and moderate supply.
Update Economic USA Consumer Credit
Coonsumer credit continues to expand at an above historical rate while the consumer manages debt in a responsible manner. Default rates in consumer credit, mortgage, auto related default all improved, but bank credit card defaults remained high on a short term historical level.