Category: Economics
Update USA Retail Sales
Retail sales increased for the month and year-over-year. Sales increased by 0.4% for the month of April and 4.5% since this time last year. Online sales are increasing at a rapid rate of 10.7% from last year while department store sales fell 5.2% over the same period of time. If retails sales continue to increase at this rate it will be considered inflationary. This would make the Federal Reserve very happy.
Update USA Unemployment 1st Time Claims
Employment jobless claims for 1st time requests continue to fall. Recent jobless claims were down another 2,000 for the week ending 6 May. The rate is now at 236,000 which is well below the 300,000 unofficial benchmark. Additionally, the 4-week average remained nearly flat at 243,500 nearly the same as the previous week. Continuing claims were also down by 61,000 to 1.92 million for a previous 1.96 million.
Update USA Unemployment Rate
American unemployment rate for April came in in line with our forecast at 4.4%. This was a slight decrease from March’s 4.5%.
The economy generated 211,000 new jobs in April. Wages also improved by 0.3% to $26.19 / hour. Year-over-year hourly pay increased by 2.5% which is ahead of the inflation rate thereby improving personal income.
Update USA Trade Balance
Trade with other countries continued to expand and the deficit declined by 0.1 billion to $43.7 billion in March. Even though the monthly exports and imports dropped, they dropped nearly equally. The trade balance movement on a monthly basis was close to the average change since 1997. On a year-over-year basis the trade deficit grew by 7.5% because imports grew by $47.5 billion while exports grew, but by a lesser amount, $30.0 billion. The trade deficit remained near the recent trend of the past six years, post-Great Recession.
Update USA Unemployment 1st Time Claims
Employment jobless claims for 1st time requests is down 19,000 on a month-to-month basis in April well below the 300,000 unofficial benchmark at 238,000. Additionally, the 4-week average remained nearly flat at 243,000. Continuing claims were also down by 23,000 to 1.96 million.