Category: U.S. Economy
Update Economic USA Employment
Employment continues to do well in the U.S. with the addition of 178,000 in nonfarm payrolls. This is better than the previous month especially in the area of small business. Increases in the small business category is especially important because this is the category where most new jobs are created. Most jobs in larger enterprises are replacement positions. As we have mentioned in previous reports, we believe it will become increasingly more difficult to increase overall employment numbers as the unemployment rate drops. Inflation in wages may start to appear in greater earnest in the next 6 months.
Update Economic USA Housing
New home sales statistics were recently released and they continue to show a developing market where prices are increasing which correspondingly slowed demand. There is a lower level of supply available across the entire housing marketplace. New home sales dropped 9.4% for the month, but year-over-year activity is up 9.2%. The sales period, the time new homes stay on the market For Sale, is down to 2.9 months from a previous 3.6 months just a year ago; all signs of a tightening market; good for suppliers and, not as good for buyers. Fortunately, the market is not showing signs of stress, but rather a normal activity when supply and demand are tilted to higher demand and moderate supply.
Update Economic USA Consumer Credit
Coonsumer credit continues to expand at an above historical rate while the consumer manages debt in a responsible manner. Default rates in consumer credit, mortgage, auto related default all improved, but bank credit card defaults remained high on a short term historical level.
Update Economic USA Inflation
After a brief period of inflation supporting rate increases by the Federal Reserve the consumer price index has moved back under a 2.0% target to 1.7%. At this rate, inflation is not supporting an additional rate increase in the bank rate. The producer price index also dropped to 1.9% annual rate. In general, increases in the PPI are reflected in the CPI several months afterwards. Neither inflation index is indicating an increase in overall prices in the near term. Both are at levels that are well within our current forecast.
Update Economic USA Housing
Update Housing