The Total market is reflecting a good fair value at 94.8% with both Large Cap and Mid Cap segments at fair value, 100.5% and 100.8% respectively. Small Cap continues to stay in the undervalued side of fair value range at 88.2%. Full report in World Markets section.
The Total market is now 5% higher than it was 12 months ago with a valuation of 116.2%. The relationship between the two values is much better than previous. When the market was at this level a year ago we were experiencing valuations that were increasing at a rate that was more rapid than the increase in market value and had reached a ratio of nearly 2.00. The expectations ratio is now a more reasonable 1.74.
The market over the past 30 days has been very much like riding a roller-coaster. You start and stop in the same place while experiencing a rather thrilling period in-between. The DOW moved over 1,000 points resulting in a 4% move if you measure the change between the high for the month, 25,877, to the low, 24,815. However, the change from this time last month, May and today, June, is less than 1% and only 189 points, less than a good 1 day move.
Approximately, 24% of the market is in the combined SELL WATCH/SELL classification and 20% in the combined BUY WATCH/BUY classification. This is a much better, balanced condition, than what we experienced at the end of 2017 when 24% was solidly in the single SELL/Overvalued classification and only 11% in the single BUY/Undervalued classification.